It seems increasingly likely that the winner of the upcoming Ukrainian Presidential elections will be a man called Viktor Yanukovych. The name is probably unlikely to ring many bells outside of Ukraine itself, but perhaps it ought to.
Mr. Yanukovych was the sitting Prime Minister during the last term of former Preisdent Leonid Kuchma. In 2004, he became a Presidential candidate. In 2002, a coalition of opposition factions within the Ukrainian Parliament, led principally by Viktor Yushchenko and Yulia Tymoshenko, made a pact to run against the incumbent Party of the Regions. By mid-2004 this alliance had a name - the 'Force of the People'.
Ukrainian Presidential elections require a 50% majority to allow victory to be declared. Typically, in the first round of voting, no one candidate manages to achieve this, and thus a second ballot is held between the top two of the first poll. The official results of the 2004 election were that Yanukovych had won in the second round. However, numerous indepedent electoral observers stated their belief that the election had been rigged, and Yanushchenko, and his supporters began a series of mass protests. They wore orange, the colour of Yanushchenko's campaign, and thus the Orange Revolution was born.
The protest worked, and ultimately the election results were annulled. The matter had been referred to the Ukrainian Supreme Court, who ordered a re-vote, which Yanushchenko won by a clear margin. Thus, the Orange Revolution ended - it seemed it was a great day for democracy. Yanushchenko was pro-western, and it seemed to give hope that the nation would move towards EU membership and integration, and away from Russian influence.
However, Yanushchenko only polled 5.5% of the votes in the first round of the recent elections, meaning he will not return. Yulia Tymoschenko, the Prime Minister since 2004, is the nearest rival but it seems that her support is not strong enough. The Ukraine is lurching back towards the Kremlin.
This begs the question - why? The simple truth is that the government that arose post the Orange Revolution failed. It failed to address the corruption at the core of Ukrainian administration, which is perhaps what was most gravely needed. The crux of the problem came down to a power struggle between Yanushchenko and Tymoschenko. With constant infighting and backbiting between the legislature and executive, there was no hope of reform, and indeed it came to pass that no real progress has been made.
The sheer pettiness of the disputes, most ludicrously when Yushchenko effectively commandeered a plane that was due to transport Tymoshenko from Kiev to the western city of Lviv, forcing her to wait for alternative transport, shows the sheer level of idiocy that ensued. There were numerous allegations of corruption made against each other, regarding deposits of state owned assets into private accounts. Most troubling is the likelihood that some of these allegations may well be fact. The coalition between the two borke down in September of 2008, and from there on any hopes that the Orange Revolution had any lingering prospect of leading to meaningful change for the people of the Ukraine.
Spokespeople for Mr. Yanukovych state that he is a moderniser, that he is not simply a Kremlin stooge and will seek European integration. It is hard to believe this, based on his past record as Prime Minister. The Ukraine is a nation of burgeoning importance, a physical conduit for Russian gas and energy supplies into Europe. A great opportunity was missed after the successes of 2004, both for Europe as a whole to welcome a strategically valuable new partner, but most crucially of all for the Ukrainian people to live in a proper, functioning and mature democracy.
Given the failures of this administration it is hard not to forgive the electorate for turning their backs. It seems, however, that Russia may well be the only winner here, and given the struggle of the Ukrainians to be a free nation, and the terrible famines suffered there under the Russian aegis, such a victory is ill deserved. With its launch of a new military covenant this week, re-asserting the need for a nuclear arsenal, there can be little cause for cheer when it comes to the wider picture of progress for post-Soviet states.
No comments:
Post a Comment